14 June 2025

China 2020

Recommendation

To what lengths will Western businesses travel in order to make profits in China? What morals and principles are they willing to sacrifice for a taste of success? Associate professor of business Michael A. Santoro investigates this subject by focusing on four salient issues: sweatshops, illegal drug manufacturing, Internet censorship and the rule of law. He offers a lucid, well-reasoned, though at times academic, analysis of how businesses are cashing in on corruption, weak regulation and the de facto absence of the rule of law instead of trying to improve conditions in China. Although some of Santoro’s conclusions seem idealistic (for example, inject foreign firms operating in China with a sense of morality and you will fix China’s problems), BooksInShort recommends his brief but excellent argument that Western corporations have a responsibility for human rights proportional to their ability to make a difference.

Take-Aways

  • The 2008 Beijing Olympic Games offered China a platform to display its modernity.
  • Yet, human rights violations, corruption and pollution are still pervasive in China, which finds itself at a crossroad between greater freedom or more despotism.
  • Western companies generally have failed to exercise social responsibility in China.
  • They have a moral duty to intervene in human rights abuses if they have ties with the victims, if they can make a difference and if they can withstand the repercussions.
  • Sweatshops are still prevalent throughout China.
  • American pharmaceutical companies abuse a loophole in drug safety laws by manufacturing cheaply in China.
  • In 2007, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson traded away drug safety in exchange for greater access to China’s financial market.
  • Firms such as Google, Microsoft and Yahoo usually cooperate with Chinese censorship.
  • Despite access to the best lawyers, Western firms have not litigated in China’s courts.
  • If they did, perhaps they could improve the judicial system and its ethics, but Westerners prefer to rely on guanxi – social capital – to settle disputes.

Summary

The Moral Compass

The opening of the Beijing Olympics on August 8, 2008 focused the world’s attention on a modern, prosperity-driven China. On October 1, 1949, a short distance from where the new Olympic stadium now stands, Chairman Mao declared the foundation of a new Communist China – the People’s Republic of China. Since then, the country has departed radically from its staunchly Communist creed, preferring to follow former leader Deng Xiaoping’s assertion that “to get rich is glorious.” If Chairman Mao’s People’s Republic was the new China, the China of the Olympics was the new, new China.

“Much of the criticism about China is warranted - in its rush to the future, corners have been cut, which have resulted in numerous catastrophes.”

Yet, despite so many advances in the new, new China, many things have not changed at all. The Chinese government still does not function under the rule of law. Its human rights practices are questionable or even suspect. Corruption is endemic. Pollution is widespread. Western critics and Chinese citizens both find fault with the new, new China, but a wide gulf divides them. Westerners focus on such issues as environmentalism, human rights, sweatshops, Tibet and unsafe products. The Chinese are more concerned about the rising cost of living, the unequal distribution of income, and corruption. They are quite sensitive to foreign criticism, and increasingly retort with anger and hostility. Resentful nationalism is on the rise. Since the late 1970s, foreign corporations have been pouring resources into China, now the world’s factory. Corporate executives face criticism for willingly collaborating with a regime that flouts developed-world norms with respect to rights, freedoms and environmental protection. In response, they assert that economic progress will lead to reform on other fronts. In fact, although economic development has brought about some positive social changes, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is resolved to hold onto its solo political power.

“China has become the country that many in the West love to hate.”

Western businesses have done far less than they should to help advance human rights, freedom and justice. Corporations are legal “persons,” bound morally to accept social responsibility. Those operating in China face a clear choice: obey the government’s rules or withdraw from the country. But can they find a middle ground? In apartheid-era South Africa, many foreign firms complied with the Sullivan Principles, which discouraged foreign-owned firms from implementing apartheid laws on their premises. The “fair share theory of corporate responsibility” states that a firm is obliged to intervene in human rights violations, depending on its relationship to the victims, its ability to make a positive change through intervention and its capacity to withstand “economic retaliation.” Corporations in China face a similar choice.

Sweatshops

Chinese factory workers, many of them migrants from desperately poor villages, know that factory jobs mean working long hours for low pay and having no real rights, yet they seek these jobs because they offer an escape from worse conditions back home. After suffering brand damage from bad press about exploiting workers in China, global manufacturers shifted their tactics and began to display a commitment to corporate social responsibility (CSR). Many large firms now hire consultants to assess their Chinese partners’ operations or, like Wal-Mart, accept unionization. CSR programs are often PR exercises in which major corporations bribe nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) for clean reports to fend off criticism without improving their Chinese workforce’s condition. Even firms that make a genuine effort to ensure that their suppliers comply with Chinese labor laws may fall far short. Meanwhile, enterprising instructors teach Chinese factory owners how to cheat on CSR audits and deceive their foreign customers.

“Rare is the company that doesn’t have a ‘China Strategy’ for manufacturing or sales.”

In 2008, China enacted a new Labor Contract Law, which outlines workers’ rights to work and social insurance entitlements – at least on paper. Enforcement could raise manufacturing costs by as much as 30%, killing China’s comparative advantage. The big question is whether enforcement will happen. To dodge the law, some smaller firms have moved inland, where local authorities may be more lenient. The All China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU), “an arm of the state...controlled by the Communist Party,” has failed to improve working conditions because the Party is its main stakeholder. In fact, the ACFTU could even be hazardous to the embryonic, autonomous labor movement in China. It has been more diligent about discipline, productivity and “stability” than about workers’ rights. Yet, it is now pushing to unionize migrant laborers working in foreign-owned firms, such as Wal-Mart, though the unions that the chain has joined do little more than provide recreation. They do not engage in substantive collective bargaining.

Dangerous Drugs

Chinese drugs are unsafe. In 2008, contaminated heparin from China killed up to 81 people in the U.S. An investigation revealed that no health inspectors – Chinese or American – had supervised the supplier. In fact, the pharmaceutical company’s supply chain included remote family businesses that sold a cheap substitute chemical with enough similarities to heparin to pass basic quality screens. This is not an isolated incident. Hundreds of deaths and countless injuries have occurred globally due to counterfeit, contaminated, fraudulent and noxious Chinese drugs.

“The notion that one should ‘do in Rome as the Romans do’...is for the most part a sensible idea...In recent decades, however, multination corporations have been forced to consider the moral limits of this idea.”

China’s drug regulatory system is so shoddy that China executed a former head of its State Food and Drug Administration when authorities discovered he had been taking bribes to approve fatally unsafe drugs. China’s medical manufacturing regulations are much less stringent than U.S. laws. Basically, Chinese drugs are the products of an unregulated industry. The rules that do exist are often unpublished and unknown, and have wide loopholes. The judiciary is not empowered to draw boundaries and clarify accountability. For example, chemical companies are exempt from regulation by China’s State Food and Drug Administration. Says one Chinese executive, “If you want to be regulated they will regulate you. If you don’t want to be regulated, they don’t.”

“Corporations have a primary duty to attempt to remedy human rights violations in which they are not to directly violate or assist others in violating human rights.”

This has not prevented U.S. and European pharmaceutical companies from sourcing “active pharmaceutical ingredients” in China. Although plants in the U.S. are subject to inspection by the Food and Drug Administration, the agency has inspected no more than a handful of Chinese manufacturing facilities. Moreover, China’s supply chain for drugs and drug ingredients is so lengthy and complex that regulators may not even know some suppliers exist.

“Because so much of the world’s low-wage production takes place in China, it has become a focal point for the anti-sweatshop movement.”

In 2007, American trade negotiators under the leadership of Bush administration Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson treated drug safety as a bargaining chip to gain access to China’s financial services market. The World Trade Organization (WTO) and other trade agreements allow the U.S. to prohibit drug imports from China until it proves that it has a reliable, trustworthy regulatory system in place. Yet, the pharmaceutical industry opted to use China as a way to avoid costly compliance with American drug regulations. To demand higher safety regulations is to increase costs – a trade-off that U.S. pharmaceutical firms are unwilling to make.

“China’s drug industry remains a significant danger to its own citizens and to the rest of the world.”

Thus, drug manufacturers outsourcing to China face even greater social responsibility than, say, clothes or toy manufacturers. Firms must ensure compliance to safety standards on top of human rights and workers standards. The first small step to a solution should be a tracking and labeling system that clearly identifies drug sources and ingredients to provide some transparency to the supply chain. U.S. and European companies should help Chinese regulators design and implement world-class regulations. They should not ignore safety for the sake of low costs.

The Chinese Internet

A Chinese journalist is serving a 10-year prison sentence because Yahoo, his e-mail service provider, turned his name over to Chinese authorities. Microsoft removed the blog of an advocate for Chinese democracy, even though the server hosting the blog was based in the U.S. Cisco sold China the technology it needs to censor information and spy on its citizens. Google launched a censored Chinese search engine that prevents users in China from finding information that the Chinese government does not want them to see.

“Every year in China thousands of people die or fall ill, many suffering permanent disabilities such as brain damage, from tainted pharmaceuticals.”

Hopes had been high that the Internet would bring information, transparency and freedom to China. However, American technology companies’ numerous cooperations with China have dashed those hopes. As a result, the government is very much in control of what Chinese netizens, or citizens of the Internet, see and don’t see. Censors block access to Web sites such as YouTube when they carry politically objectionable content, like videos of the crackdown in Tibet. Chinese authorities rely on individuals to spy on their peers. For example, students can earn money for ratting out others who e-mail, blog or chat about forbidden subjects.

“Article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights [imposes] a duty on the Chinese government not to censor the Internet. Private companies operating in China have a duty not to assist the government in censoring the Internet.”

This official censorship has a chilling effect, leading to self-censorship. Chinese Internet users know that they must be cautious about what they search for or say online. However, they now have power and freedom that they could only dream about before the dawn of the Internet. Netizens are using the Internet to publicize egregious injustices. The story of the graphic designer who died following a brutal police beating, or that of the husband who, under torture, confessed to killing his wife – even though she was still very much alive in another province – received lots of Web publicity.

“The stark reality facing Internet companies in China is that they will unavoidably have ‘dirty hands.’ There is no way to operate in China without compromising and violating basic human rights principles.”

Western companies such as Google, Yahoo and Microsoft make a trade-off between corporate social responsibility to Chinese citizens and responsibility to their shareholders. Access to information is a human right. Thus, Internet companies are violating human rights by blocking access to information, cooperating with the Chinese government and putting profits before principles. Of the three Internet giants, Yahoo has demonstrated the most deplorable behavior. It censors even more diligently than Chinese companies. In 2002, Yahoo signed a “Public Pledge of Self Discipline” to enter the Chinese market.

“After nearly three decades of explosive economic growth and accompanying tectonic social changes, China’s future remains highly uncertain.”

Internet companies must decide whether they will do business morally, legally or not at all. So far, Western Internet companies have preferred to operate legally but immorally in China. There is some hope for change. In 2008, the Global Network Initiative brought American and European companies together to agree upon a code of principles for operating in countries that, like China, violate the human right to information. By working together and involving academic and NGO stakeholders, these companies can reduce their collective and individual vulnerability to economic retaliation by China, and perhaps manage to do more good than evil in the long run.

Rule of Law

The rule of law is embryonic in China. Corruption is rampant, as is guanxi, a Chinese form of social capital or cronyism. It’s a radically new and not widely accepted idea that the law, courts and judges, of which only about half have law degrees, can protect individual rights and property. The judiciary is not independent, but an agency among others. Moreover, the CCP has made it clear that the judiciary’s duty is to serve the Party and advance its policies.

“In the coming decade and beyond, only a Pax China that protects civil and political rights will respect the economic rights of Western business.”

China’s entry into the WTO required it to implement legal reforms, including the Administrative Litigation Law (ALL), which “allows individuals to sue public agencies and officials.” Foreign businesses have the right to resolve their disputes in the same courts as Chinese citizens. However, no foreign company has ever filed a suit under the ALL. Why? Multinational firms hire the best lawyers, who advise extreme caution in challenging China’s government in court. First, there is no reason to believe that Chinese courts are fair. Second, there is every reason to expect retaliation from the Chinese government.

Western businesses know that if they cultivate guanxi they don’t need to worry about the law. They see corruption as just another way of doing business, and have been willing to participate. This insults the argument that Western businesses can help to change China for the better. In fact, in some cases they may be changing it for the worse. If foreign businesses would insist on enforcing their legal rights in court, rather than merely abiding by Chinese law, they could make a positive difference. Their example could encourage other companies and individuals to use the courts. Of course, they run the risk of an economic and political backlash, but foreign businesses are collectively strong enough to withstand retaliation – especially when they act in concert. A call for foreign businesses to contribute to the rule of law in China by stepping back from corruption and fighting their battles in court is not sheer idealism. Billions of dollars in foreign direct investment have now flowed into a lawless country with questionable property rights.

About the Author

Michael A. Santoro is associate professor of business ethics at the Rutgers Business School. He is the author of Profits and Principles: Global Capitalism and Human Rights in China.


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China 2020

Book China 2020

How Western Business Can – and Should – Influence Social and Political Change in the Coming Decade

ILR Press,


 



14 June 2025

The Laws of Disruption

Recommendation

Business strategist Larry Downes, author of Unleashing the Killer App, sees how digital technologies are changing the world – and why technology will advance more and have more impact. Downes looks beyond the obvious implications of digital technology to examine the root causes of change. He pays informed attention to the law and legal structures. He also draws parallels between the digital revolution and social change. This forward-looking book is fun, lively and useful for those who wish to study digital technologies or social structures.

Take-Aways

  • Three laws direct the revolutionary changes wrought by computer technology.
  • “Moore’s Law” says computer chip memory doubles every 12-18 months at no rise in cost to the consumer.
  • “Metcalfe’s Law” says networks become more valuable as more people join them.
  • The “Law of Disruption” says that “technology changes exponentially, but social, economic and legal systems change incrementally” and struggle to keep up.
  • Digital goods are “nonrivalrous”: Multiple people can use them simultaneously.
  • As the digital world converges with the analog world, conflicts occur. New community agreements must emerge to protect individual rights affected by digital technology.
  • The right to privacy has dissipated. To protect yourself, share data pragmatically.
  • No universal rights exist – on- or offline. Online firms should create “social contracts” that users must accept to gain admission to online services.
  • Rather than pushing inapplicable existing laws into the digital realm, society needs new laws – such as in patent and copyright – based on community and corporate standards.
  • In the end, open access will triumph over treating digital creations as products.

Summary

The Digital World and the “Law of Disruption”

When a new technology is introduced, society must adapt. To understand how a major technological change creates far-reaching ripples, consider the effect of replacing metal stirrups with “flexible leather” stirrups in Europe during Charlemagne’s reign. This simple innovation provided medieval knights with more balance, efficacy and deadly success. Essentially, the leather stirrup “saved Europe.” But, rather than pay their knights directly, kings gave them land and the right to collect rent. This led to a structured feudal society that outlasted – by 1,000 years – the initial need to pay victorious mounted knights. If you buy property in some areas of London even today, you pay “tribute to the Duke of Westminster.”

“Throughout modern history, technological breakthroughs regularly surpass the people who invent them.”

Consider the effect of another disruptive technology, the railroad, which changed shipping in 19th century America. The courts had no “clear precedent to determine ‘fair’ rates” for rail shipping. Attempts to adapt old laws proved useless. As famous attorney Brook Adams argued, “The character of competition has changed and the law must change to meet it, or collapse.” The legal system had to accommodate this new technology and other disruptive innovations over time, from “reading glasses” to “the telegraph, antibiotics, automobiles” and the “atom bomb.”

“As information has become more central to the economy, the failure to account for its value becomes dangerous.”

Now, digital technologies are the disruptive innovation creating a sweeping revolution. In this case, as in many of the others, “technology changes exponentially but social, economic and legal systems change incrementally.” Thus, the “analog world” is reaching a point where it can no longer keep up with “digital life,” forcing the emergence of a paradigm shift in which existing systems fall and replacement systems evolve to make better sense of new phenomena. Amid such a shift, older laws become useless because they are based on assumptions that no longer apply. The free market, while imperfect, deals with such changes better than formal legal structures, like courts. Understanding how such impact spreads is a modern challenge. Three laws explain the changes that digital technology is creating:

  1. “Moore’s Law” – In 1965, Intel’s founder, Gordon Moore, predicted that computer chip “processing power” would double every 12-18 months without a rise in users’ costs. This has held true since. While inflation harms other goods, deflation rules computer technology. Because software is manufactured and distributed electronically, it has “zero marginal cost,” unlike the carrying costs of older consumer goods.
  2. “Metcalfe’s Law” – “Networking pioneer” Robert Metcalfe said that networks become more valuable the more people use them. Every time someone joins Twitter, Facebook or, by implication, the Internet, that network becomes markedly more constructive.
  3. “The Law of Disruption” – The dissemination of change is “uneven.” Various elements of society struggle to keep up with rapid technological change.
“The Law of Disruption has initiated an arms race between those who use technology productively and those who use it destructively.”

The digital and material economies function differently. Most material products are “rivalrous goods.” If one person uses them, another cannot; two people can’t build a house on the same site. Digital goods are largely “nonrivalrous.” Several people can use them at the same time. Copying a song doesn’t use it up, destroy it or keep anyone else from using it. This information-based digital economy follows five general principles:

  1. “Renewability” – You can renew data, but not exhaust it..
  2. “Universality” – Everyone can access the same data simultaneously.
  3. “Magnetism” – Information grows in value as more people absorb it, which, in turn, creates a network effect, drawing more people who want to learn.
  4. “Lack of friction” – The more smoothly information flows, the more valuable it is.
  5. “Vulnerability” – Criminals can harm or misuse information. They can destroy it, ruin it or steal it (as in identity theft). In this one sense, data is like physical goods.
“Your digital self aspires to a better kind of civilization. Netizens will not accept a form of government that moves backwards from the best that democratic societies enjoy today.”

Disruption follows nine significant laws:

“Law One: Convergence – When Worlds Collide”

When the physical world and the digital world clash, society has to negotiate the chaos. This job has fallen largely to ill-equipped lawyers and judges, who have used legal reasoning and precedent to create the “emerging law of digital life.” Consider the repeated court battles between the Beatles’ Apple Corporation and Apple Computers. First, they fought over the name. The courts resolved that by dividing up business arenas: the Beatles could use the name to sell music, while Apple Computers could use it for computers and related technologies. The convergence problem emerged with the development of the digital transfer of music and, then, of iTunes. Changing technology led Apple Computers into a new area where earlier delineations between operating areas no longer applied. Today, you can download Beatles songs from Apple Computers. Such changes, though they take time to unfold, are happening across society.

“A computer is a fundamentally new kind of machine. One minute it is a word processor and the next a thermostat regulator; even better, sometimes it’s both at the same time.”

Should predigital rules for cellphones, auctions, radio stations and other realms also govern Web phone calls, auctions, radio stations, and so on? Court decisions have varied. National boundary conflicts and issues concerning “digital vice” add complexity. Combatants tend to phrase their attempts to regulate digital vices (pornography, gambling) in moral terms. Actually, the fight is really more about who gets the revenue from regulating vice. Most courts have dealt with digital technologies’ power by trying to limit it. This generally fails because businesses and “consumers reject these artificial limits” and oppose out-of-date legal systems. Emergent networks let tech users communicate and collaborate, so they easily can organize against obsolete structures. They seek a legal system that finds justice by creating new approaches, not adapting old ones, given “the danger of using ‘legal reasoning’ to analogize old cases to new activities.”

“Law Two: Personal Information – From Privacy to Propriety”

Personal information issues are shifting from matters of privacy to issues of propriety. People think that “they have a right to privacy,” but they don’t agree on its extent or origins. In fact, no universally accepted right to privacy exists. The digital world is changing how much data about private individuals is readily available and how other people can obtain it and use it. Governments protect people from different kinds of intrusion. Generally, European laws shelter citizens from corporate monitoring. In the U.S., the 1974 Privacy Act protects citizens against government invasiveness. On the Web, personal information is currency, so protect yourself. Offer your data pragmatically to meet your own purposes. If your firm collects personal data, safeguard it. People imbue their personal information with emotion. If you want it, ask delicately.

“Law Three: Human Rights – Social Contracts in Digital Life”

Technological disruption has radically changed human rights. Some of this shift is due to external factors, such as the U.S. government’s increased monitoring due to its “war on terror.” Other changes result from the clash of the physical and digital realms in human rights. Just as no universal right to privacy exists, no universally recognized human rights exist either. Specific governments grant their citizens some rights, but which national rules apply in the borderless digital realm? Ultimately, governmental attempts to protect civil rights in the digital world will fail. The best alternative is a set of “social contracts.” Facebook, Microsoft and other “application providers” have established codes of conduct for their sites. They set a precedent by asking people to accept their codes in order to gain admission to their online communities.

“Law Four: Infrastructure – Rules of the Road on the Information Highway”

In 1974, the U.S. Justice Department sued monopolistic AT&T “under federal antitrust laws.” After lengthy proceedings, the government split AT&T into seven regional companies. This required complex implementation and monitoring until the 1996 Communications Act passed. This law set out to deregulate telecommunications, but the Law of Disruption arrived first. While the U.S. government tried to decide what to do with telecommunications and how to do it, the Web exploded into existence, generating new physical infrastructures, such as fiber-optic cables, and new uses for old technologies, such as using voice lines to transmit data. This demonstrates disruption’s fourth law: The digital world will change the existing infrastructure and its use.

“Law Five: Business – All Regulation Is Local”

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) played a major role at a time when technology firms held local monopolies over essential telephone communication and had to be compelled to serve not-at-all profitable rural areas as well as profitable cities. The need for such regulations – and even for distinguishing between phones and other communication technologies – no longer exists. In general, governments are good at “establishing the basic protocols” of an infrastructure and at helping to distribute “sparse resources.” Governments should fund research and provide safety nets, but should not apply outdated, moralistic or – in the modern marketplace – regional laws to the digital world, which has bypassed most such regulations. Many laws make online interactions harder without benefiting anyone. Instead, the public needs a “single uniform law of digital commerce,” a pragmatic, working code based on reality, not theory.

“Law Six: Crime – Public Wrongs, Private Remedies”

In the digital world, “crime is just another kind of information use.” Like most laws, policing agencies generally are bound by geography, which limits their effectiveness against digital crooks. Too often, officers don’t know the digital world. Data-gathering firms can self-regulate to some extent and can use the “Code of Practice for Information Security Management” to reduce the likelihood of identity theft. The free market could offer insurance against identity theft, maybe with the support of very focused legislation. Consumer education could teach people to share data more wisely. Criminals also attack the digital realm with spam and viruses. No single cure can mitigate these attacks, and banning them won’t help. Often, the perpetrators operate under free-speech laws. The best defense is a multipronged tactic, using technological solutions and taking advantage of “the Internet’s decentralized design,” which makes it resistant to disruption.

“Law Seven: Copyright – Reset the Balance”

Existing copyright law is partly “archaic” and partly useless in a digital world, where copying files is so easy. Recent actions by U.S. lawmakers, such as lengthening the term of copyrights, including retroactive extensions, make the situation worse. Additional steps taken by large corporations, such as instituting piracy-prevention mechanisms, also have a negative impact. These actions generate lawsuits, impede creativity and fail to block piracy or account for the digital world’s speed of change. Three actions would help:

  1. Reduce the length of copyrights, making them more “realistic” and releasing works to the public domain sooner.
  2. Restore laws on “fair use” to keep companies from duplicating and selling content that belongs to other parties. This will reduce lawsuits.
  3. Reverse the “Digital Millennium Copyright Act,” which stifles free speech and disrupts the balance “between information producers and users.”

“Law Eight: Patent – Virtual Machines Need Virtual Lubricants”

Current law tries to treat software like a patented product. This doesn’t work because of the speed with which software is developed and becomes obsolete, the nature of software development, and the way software reuses “prior art,” in that new programs are built on their earlier versions. The U.S. must change its patent laws. This reform must occur at the legislative level, not in the courts. The patent office is inundated, and the many software patents being filed add to what are essentially very expensive nuisance suits. Some companies are “patent trolls,” that is, they file patents on everything and anything, claiming innovations they did not invent nor manufacture.

“Law Nine: Software – Open Always Wins...Eventually”

Software, digital life’s raw material, enables computers to function. Copyright and patent laws now protect software, but the way these laws are drafted fundamentally misunderstands the nature of software and the digital economy.

“The semiconductor, or ‘chip,’ was first added to a calculator in 1967, to a toy in 1978 and to a toaster in 1983.”

The logical future route is not to treat software as a product, but as an open resource, so that the collaborative nature of the digital world can renew and improve it continually. Rather than selling it, creators should give software away or sell it by subscription. In the end, open always wins. Adapting systems for greater openness fosters additional innovation.

About the Author

Larry Downes, a partner with the Bell-Mason Group, is a nonresident fellow at the Stanford Law Center for Internet and Society and the author of Unleashing the Killer App.


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The Laws of Disruption

Book The Laws of Disruption

Harnessing the New Forces that Govern Life and Business in the Digital Age

Basic Books,


 



14 June 2025

The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide

Recommendation

In this savings and investment “survival guide,” financial publisher Martin D. Weiss proclaims that the world is entering another depression. According to the U.S. Government Accountability Office, his investment advisory and rating firm outperforms all other companies at “forecasting future financial trouble.” Indeed, for two decades, Weiss has accurately predicted “nearly every large financial failure in the United States,” including the latest financial collapse. When it comes to doom-and-gloom financial prognostications, Weiss has excellent bloodlines. His father, J. Irving Weiss, was one of the few economists who predicted the Great Depression at the time. So what does this modern-day Cassandra have to tell us? Weiss claims that as wretched as things are now economically, they will get much worse in the years to come. However, in addition to dismal tidings, he offers numerous specific, well-informed recommendations on how to protect – and even increase – your assets during the “Second Great Depression of modern times.” BooksInShort suggests that if you want to study fiscal advice that covers the spectrum from pessimism to optimism, this book expertly handles the pessimistic end.

Take-Aways

  • The world is going to have another Great Depression.
  • This is due to the housing and mortgage implosions, as well as the debt crisis.
  • Numerous telltale signs forecast the coming depression, including millions of homes in foreclosure, the bankruptcies of giant corporations and high unemployment.
  • Government policies to bail out companies and industries with borrowed money will not reverse the downward trend.
  • Since huge debt is a major cause of the coming depression, piling on more governmental debt, as is now taking place, will only make things worse.
  • Most people will lose all their wealth because of the coming depression. However, with the proper financial strategy, you can hold onto your money.
  • Reduce your debt. Pay back the debts with the highest interest rates first.
  • Explore a variety of available investment options, from Exchange Traded Funds to gold.
  • Wait until the economy hits rock bottom, then seek bargains and invest aggressively.
  • Remember, your most important financial goals are “savings and capital preservation.”

Summary

The “Second Great Depression”

Many people didn’t think it could happen again, but another Great Depression is just around the corner. Its causes include a disastrous housing collapse, a meltdown in home mortgages and history’s most significant global debt crisis. Note that the word “depression,” not “recession,” applies to what is coming and, indeed, what is partially here already: a major economic contraction that will last many years, create huge unemployment and wipe out most individuals’ wealth.

“Never before in your lifetime has your money, your home, your retirement and your entire financial future been in greater danger!”

Some disturbing signs portend dark days ahead. One of every ten U.S. home mortgage holders is delinquent or in foreclosure, and 40% have less equity in their homes than the debt remaining on their mortgages (that is, their value is “upside-down”). Famous U.S. companies are “bankrupt, bailed out or bought out.” In response, the government is assuming massive, crushing debt in an attempt to rescue entire industry sectors.

“The only way to avoid the pain of a great bust is to refrain from the excesses of a great boom.” [ – J. Irving Weiss]

America is not the only country throwing huge amounts of money at troubled companies to keep them afloat. Is this a sensible policy? No. In fact, it is doomed to fail. Quick recovery is impossible. Too much public debt exists and no will exists to pay higher taxes to cover massive new borrowing. Meanwhile, consumer confidence has “plunged to the lowest level in recorded history,” coupling the staggering debt with deflation – “falling prices and income.” This dangerous debt-plus-deflation formula is the perfect recipe for depression. Everything is in a vicious, downward spiral. That is precisely the way things worked in the 1930s and it is the way things will work out today.

You Can Stay Afloat

Many people will not be able to ride out the economic storm. As in the Great Depression, they will lose most of their wealth. However, that does not have to happen to you. If you follow these proven tips on handling your finances, you will not only keep your head above water during the Second Great Depression, you’ll flourish financially in the difficult years ahead:

  • Knock down your debt – Organize your credit card bills according to interest rates, highest to lowest. Pay off all your debts as quickly as possible, focusing on retiring the highest-interest card debts first. If you must, borrow from friends and family to do so. Tear up your credit cards. Don’t replace them. Pure debit cards are okay. Pay off your other loans and get ahead on your mortgage. Save your cash. You’ll need it.
  • Protect your earnings – If the company where you work is solid, become its most valuable employee. If it is not, find something else quickly. A home business may be a viable option.
  • Savings – Prices fall during a depression, so your cash will go much further. Hold as much cash as you can. Set a realistic savings goal and stick to it. Stash your savings monthly before you buy anything. You can find great cash deals in the financial markets.
  • How safe is your money in a bank? – If you live in the U.S., never place more than the $250,000 guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in any one bank. If thousands of banks begin to fail, the FDIC may not be able to compensate all account holders on a timely basis. Instead of a bank, put your money in short-term U.S. Treasury securities. You can arrange a personal checking account against this kind of fund investment. American Century’s Capital Preservation Fund is a good buy. Put most of your cash funds in the securities account. If you maintain a bank account at a strong institution, keep minimal funds there. With a set-up like this – based on having less cash on hand to spend – keeping a major credit card makes sense. Use it for most purchases and pay the full balance monthly with a check from your Treasury account.
  • Sell the home? – When real estate prices are dropping, selling your home may be your best choice. It will be worth less later on than it is now. Find an agent with strong sales in the current down market. Set your price at least 10% lower than comparable homes to move it quickly. Don’t refuse any bids out of hand. You can always negotiate for more.
  • Keep the home? – If you want to stay in your home, work with the county property appraiser to reduce your taxes. Check on cheaper homeowner’s insurance and refinancing to lower costs. U.S. residents who can’t meet their home payments should contact the Federal Housing Administration, which has new programs for distressed homeowners.
  • Other real estate – If you don’t live in it, get rid of it.
  • Protect your 401(k) – In the U.S., adjust your 401(k) to fit new investment realities. This means selling “stocks and stock mutual funds,” as well as long-term bonds. Corporate or municipal bonds can quickly lose value. Avoid them in bad times, but buy them when a recovery is underway (only if they offer strong price discounts, high quality and high yield). Your new investment options, with the best ones first, are: Treasury-only money market funds (if you can include them in your 401(k)); government-only money market funds; standard money-market funds; government bond or income funds; and government bond or income funds with some minimal inclusion of corporate bonds.
  • What about insurance? – Only buy it if you really need it. If so, go with term insurance from a solid company. Cash value policies are never smart investments.
  • How credible are Wall Street ratings for securities? – Not good at all, due to “payola, conflicts of interest and bias.” Pay no attention to them.
  • Hedge your financial bets (in moderation) with an exchange-traded fund (ETF) – If you know what to do, you can make big money during a depression. ETFs enable you to “spread your risk” by buying a “broad portfolio of investments.” Typical ETFs, which do not include loads or special fees, tie performance to the Dow Jones average or to specialized stock market sectors (for example, energy or financials). Some ETFs offer “double and even triple leverage,” so a 10% increase for a particular index may mean a 20% to 30% gain for the ETF. Such investments offer maximum flexibility.
  • Your inverse ETF strategy – An “inverse ETF” has the potential to make a huge profit when the market tumbles. Some inverse ETFs let you make money when real estate prices drop according to an accepted scale, such as the Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Index. Only risk funds you can afford to lose. Use a reverse bull market investment plan: Purchase inverse ETFs when stock prices increase; sell them only “after major stock market declines.” Strategically, “wait for good news to help drive prices up, then buy the inverse ETFs in anticipation of another decline.” Things are upside-down during a depression. Thus, evaluating stock prices vis-à-vis book value or earnings, which many companies will not have during a depression, is not a good measure.
  • Score big with currencies – The stock market may be down and out, but you still can make profits in currency speculation. Once only the domain of the super rich or the cleverest investors, currency investments are now available to everyone. Such speculation rests on comparisons of how other currencies perform against the dollar, including the “euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Australian dollar.” “There’s always a bull market in currencies” because, usually, at least one currency is moving up. Since currencies involve “long-term, sweeping trends,” like economic growth, this is often easy to track. When things are depressed globally or “commodity or consumer prices” are tumbling, the dollar will almost always be stronger than other currencies. To profit, “invest in instruments...tied to the U.S. Dollar Index.” Some good currency ETFs are available through Rydex Funds and PowerShares. With deflation, which is a virtual certainty during a depression, bet your money “on a rising dollar.” Conversely, when inflation rules, bet “on a falling dollar.”
  • It’s super bargain time – During the Great Depression, many investors built large, enduring fortunes by scooping up terrific bargains in stocks, other securities, real estate and so on. You can do the same during the Second Great Depression. The trick is knowing when things have truly hit rock bottom, then aggressively purchasing the best deals available. (There will be thousands of them.) You will profit when stocks rebound and again when earnings recommence. What are the broad signs that prices have fallen as low as they can? Debt liquidation is one, so watch “mortgages, mortgage-backed securities and...credit default swaps.” A bottom will occur once these are rehabilitated. Another sign to watch for is the U.S. government’s retreat from “the bailout business.” If Wall Street analysts start to claim that stocks are worthless, it may be time to buy. (They may be trying to drive prices down to get better deals for themselves.) Similarly, it may be a good time to buy when the average person fears that things will never improve. With investments, never trust the wisdom of crowds. “Watershed events,” such as a “radical shift in monetary policy,” also may indicate that things have bottomed out. When you do move, target topnotch blue chips first, but “set reasonable risk limits, such as 10% or 20% of your investment.” One real estate note: You can already find unbelievable bargains, including beachfront homes in “southeast Brazil [and] northeast Australia.”
  • Bonds – Interest rates represent the “price of money.” For years, the U.S. Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates, recently to almost zero. The price of money, as set by the Fed, is artificially low. Sooner or later, it will have to go back up. When it does, you can secure some “of the best yields of your lifetime.” So, when interest rates rise, buy long-term bonds of the highest quality. Lock in extremely high yields for 20 or 30 years. The U.S. Treasury will need to issue more bonds to cover its mammoth debt. As the number of bonds increase, their prices will decrease, “driving up their yield.” Follow this strategy: Start by buying short-term Treasury securities. As interest rates go up and conditions bottom out, switch to “Treasuries at higher and higher yields.” Move a substantial portion of your wealth to long-term Treasury bonds with “high, guaranteed yields.” Switch a smaller part of your funds to high-grade corporate bonds. Trust only independent rating agencies for guidance.
  • Dividends – When prices of stock are at rock bottom, you will get superb bargains. Buy “conservative companies at deep-discount prices, with solid dividends and good growth potential.” To pick stocks with good dividends look for the “S&P ‘Dividend Aristocrats’ and Mergent’s ‘Dividend Achievers’.” Pay attention to “capital gain potential.” Do not focus only on a stock’s yield. Sometimes, high yields are a warning that the company is weak with a dismal future.
  • Gold – If inflation occurs, buy gold, but never let it represent the major part of your portfolio. Always keep your gold ownership at “less than 5% of your liquid assets.” Buy in two stages: “before a prolonged period of deflation” and “after a prolonged period of deflation.” In deflationary times, such as during a depression, gold is not a good investment. One good way to buy gold is through a gold ETF, such as the Standard & Poor’s Depositary Receipt Gold trust. If you buy actual gold, go for “ingots and bars.” Buy only gold that is “four nines fine” (99.99% pure). Reliable vendors include “Johnson Matthey, Engelhard, Credit Suisse and Pamp.” Silver is also an option.

Building Your Fortune During Troubled Times

Follow five golden rules to increase your wealth during the economic storm:

  1. “Keep your priorities straight” – Your primary goal now is “savings and capital preservation.” Then, set your sights on growth and, later, on speculative profits.
  2. “Controlling risk is just as important as maximizing gains” – If you face potential big investment losses, use stop-loss orders. Diversify; focus on U.S. Treasury bonds.
  3. “If you speculate, use only money you can afford to lose” – Always protect your “keep-safe” money.
  4. “Keep your emotions in check” – Invest with a business-like approach. Record all investment costs, “including broker commissions and fees.” Re-evaluate your finances monthly (particularly during a depression). Adjust your strategy if need be.
  5. “Reduce your commission costs to the bone” – Particularly for active traders, brokers’ fees can eat up your profits.

About the Author

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D., is the founder and CEO of a financial services and investment publishing firm. Fluent in nine languages, Weiss chairs the nonprofit Sound Dollar Committee, an organization his father originally created to help balance the U.S. budget.


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The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide

Book The Ultimate Depression Survival Guide

Protect Your Savings, Boost Your Income and Grow Wealthy Even in the Worst of Times

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